This is an interactive tool for understanding Verification Confidence Levels (VCLs) for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) by mapping key uncertainties for different CDR pathways. Developed in collaboration between CarbonPlan and Frontier. Read the explainer article, the Frontier post, or methods for more detail.
Direct Air Capture
v1.0
VCL
4-5
Direct air capture (DAC) uses chemicals to capture CO₂ from ambient air and generate a concentrated stream of CO₂ for storage. We assume that captured CO₂ is not used for enhanced oil recovery. This pathway is VCL 4-5, meaning that current quantification capacity can establish permanent carbon removal with relative confidence. View pathway documentation.
The Verification Confidence Level (VCL) summarizes the uncertainty mapping and represents the extent to which net carbon removal and storage durability can be confidendently quantified using the best approaches available today on a scale of 1 (low confidence) to 5 (high confidence). Note that a low VCL corresponds with high component uncertainties, and vice versa.
The outcome a particular MRV component informs. Select one to filter for the corresponding components below.
Component
Uncertainty
CO₂ storage
Quantification target
What needs to be quantified via an MRV process in order to estimate the net carbon removal or storage durability achieved.
mass of stored CO₂
Uncertainty
Impact
The potential impact of the uncertainty on the final estimate of net carbon removal or storage duration: negligible, low, medium, high, or very high. These impact categories correspond directly with the five uncertainty bars shown above.
negligible (<1%)
Type
The primary driver of uncertainty given the identified “best practice” approaches to quantification: execution, scientific, or counterfactual.
execution
Responsibility
Should this uncertainty be primarily reduced through project-specific efforts, or system efforts, such as broader scientific research or cross-project coordination?
project
Included in accounting
Whether or not the component is included in the calculation of total carbon removal. Components are excluded if they primarily inform permanence outcomes, or if they represent avoided emissions or temporary carbon removal co-benefits.
The mass of CO₂ injected for geologic storage, or used as an input for another storage process (e.g. mineralization in concrete), can be measured directly as a metered output from the DAC system and a metered input to the storage system. It can also be checked for consistency against operational data from the CO₂ capture system. Any emissions associated with transporting and injecting CO₂ must be included in the project’s lifecycle assessment (see Materials and Energy). We assume here that injected CO₂ is not used for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). In the case of EOR, any GHG emissions associated with enhanced oil recovery and fuel use would have to be accounted for, as well as additionality questions about the appropriate baseline against which to credit the project.
Leakage
Quantification target
What needs to be quantified via an MRV process in order to estimate the net carbon removal or storage durability achieved.
mass of storage system leakage
Uncertainty
Impact
The potential impact of the uncertainty on the final estimate of net carbon removal or storage duration: negligible, low, medium, high, or very high. These impact categories correspond directly with the five uncertainty bars shown above.
low (1-5%)
to
medium (5-20%)
Type
The primary driver of uncertainty given the identified “best practice” approaches to quantification: execution, scientific, or counterfactual.
execution
Responsibility
Should this uncertainty be primarily reduced through project-specific efforts, or system efforts, such as broader scientific research or cross-project coordination?
project
Included in accounting
Whether or not the component is included in the calculation of total carbon removal. Components are excluded if they primarily inform permanence outcomes, or if they represent avoided emissions or temporary carbon removal co-benefits.
For terrestrial geologic storage, leakage can be directly monitored during and after the injection period, though this is more challenging for subseafloor reservoirs. If geologic storage results in a functionally stable form on a short timescale — for example, via subsurface mineralization — fugitive emissions associated with the full lifetime of storage may be estimated based on direct observations of the storage reservoir. If instead the integrity of geologic storage requires ongoing monitoring and maintenance — for example with the injection of supercritical CO₂ — the potential for future fugitive emissions must be modeled. For alternative storage systems, like mineralization in concrete, it is possible to directly measure the conversion of input CO₂ into a functionally stable form and therefore the total leakage from the storage system.
Materials
Quantification target
What needs to be quantified via an MRV process in order to estimate the net carbon removal or storage durability achieved.
material embodied emissions
Uncertainty
Impact
The potential impact of the uncertainty on the final estimate of net carbon removal or storage duration: negligible, low, medium, high, or very high. These impact categories correspond directly with the five uncertainty bars shown above.
low (1-5%)
Type
The primary driver of uncertainty given the identified “best practice” approaches to quantification: execution, scientific, or counterfactual.
execution
Responsibility
Should this uncertainty be primarily reduced through project-specific efforts, or system efforts, such as broader scientific research or cross-project coordination?
project
Included in accounting
Whether or not the component is included in the calculation of total carbon removal. Components are excluded if they primarily inform permanence outcomes, or if they represent avoided emissions or temporary carbon removal co-benefits.
The embodied emissions of any materials consumed during operation, like mineral feedstocks or chemical solvents, can be estimated based on a cradle-to-grave lifecycle assessment (LCA) of the material input. Emissions associated with any built infrastructure, including monitoring and maintenance equipment, should include both construction emissions and material embodied emissions. There are not yet consistent best practices around whether or how to account for the embodied emissions of equipment or infrastructure that is used but not owned by the project. Transparency around boundary assumptions, data sources, and uncertainties is critical for LCA consistency and comparability.
Energy
Quantification target
What needs to be quantified via an MRV process in order to estimate the net carbon removal or storage durability achieved.
energy use emissions
Uncertainty
Impact
The potential impact of the uncertainty on the final estimate of net carbon removal or storage duration: negligible, low, medium, high, or very high. These impact categories correspond directly with the five uncertainty bars shown above.
low (1-5%)
Type
The primary driver of uncertainty given the identified “best practice” approaches to quantification: execution, scientific, or counterfactual.
execution
Responsibility
Should this uncertainty be primarily reduced through project-specific efforts, or system efforts, such as broader scientific research or cross-project coordination?
project
Included in accounting
Whether or not the component is included in the calculation of total carbon removal. Components are excluded if they primarily inform permanence outcomes, or if they represent avoided emissions or temporary carbon removal co-benefits.
The emissions associated with energy use for the process should be estimated based on an assessment of lifecycle emissions for the specific electricity or energy sources consumed by the project. This should include the energy use associated with transporting and storing CO₂, combustion emissions associated with fuel use during the project, and the energy use associated with monitoring and maintenance activities.
Secondary impacts of energy demand
Quantification target
What needs to be quantified via an MRV process in order to estimate the net carbon removal or storage durability achieved.
energy replacement emissions
Uncertainty
Impact
The potential impact of the uncertainty on the final estimate of net carbon removal or storage duration: negligible, low, medium, high, or very high. These impact categories correspond directly with the five uncertainty bars shown above.
negligible (<1%)
to
medium (5-20%)
Type
The primary driver of uncertainty given the identified “best practice” approaches to quantification: execution, scientific, or counterfactual.
counterfactual
Responsibility
Should this uncertainty be primarily reduced through project-specific efforts, or system efforts, such as broader scientific research or cross-project coordination?
system
Included in accounting
Whether or not the component is included in the calculation of total carbon removal. Components are excluded if they primarily inform permanence outcomes, or if they represent avoided emissions or temporary carbon removal co-benefits.
The emissions associated with the system response to CDR energy demand must be considered for energy-intensive approaches. This component is less of a concern if a CDR project builds its own renewables, or if project energy demand is dispatchable in a way that supports grid deployment of renewables. If a CDR project introduces a new base load or is otherwise connected to the grid in a manner that could displace demand for renewables, any emissions associated with the energy system response must be considered. There is not yet a clear best practice for how to account for this system interaction.
Storage monitoring and maintenance
Quantification target
What needs to be quantified via an MRV process in order to estimate the net carbon removal or storage durability achieved.
storage system monitoring and maintenance plan; years of expected CO₂ storage
Uncertainty
Impact
The potential impact of the uncertainty on the final estimate of net carbon removal or storage duration: negligible, low, medium, high, or very high. These impact categories correspond directly with the five uncertainty bars shown above.
low (1-5%)
to
medium (5-20%)
Type
The primary driver of uncertainty given the identified “best practice” approaches to quantification: execution, scientific, or counterfactual.
execution
Responsibility
Should this uncertainty be primarily reduced through project-specific efforts, or system efforts, such as broader scientific research or cross-project coordination?
project
Included in accounting
Whether or not the component is included in the calculation of total carbon removal. Components are excluded if they primarily inform permanence outcomes, or if they represent avoided emissions or temporary carbon removal co-benefits.
If storage results in a functionally stable form of CO₂ on a short timescale — for example, via subsurface mineralization or mineralization in concrete — demonstration that the stable form has been achieved is enough to establish durability. However, if the integrity of storage requires ongoing monitoring and maintenance — for example, with the injection of supercritical CO₂ — an evaluation of durability claims must consider the monitoring and maintenance plan, as well as any applicable regulatory structure that assigns ongoing liability for storage integrity. One important consideration is whether or not there is a track record of sufficient administrative capacity to guarantee execution of monitoring, maintenance, and liability arrangements. This uncertainty is not included in the calculation of this pathway's Verification Confidence Level (VCL), because it is also captured by the Leakage component.
Direct Air Capture
v1.0
VCL
4-5
The Verification Confidence Level (VCL) summarizes the uncertainty mapping and represents the extent to which net carbon removal and storage durability can be confidendently quantified using the best approaches available today on a scale of 1 (low confidence) to 5 (high confidence). Note that a low VCL corresponds with high component uncertainties, and vice versa.
Direct air capture (DAC) uses chemicals to capture CO₂ from ambient air and generate a concentrated stream of CO₂ for storage. We assume that captured CO₂ is not used for enhanced oil recovery. This pathway is VCL 4-5, meaning that current quantification capacity can establish permanent carbon removal with relative confidence. View pathway documentation.