Below, we show future fire risk relative to some of the United States’ historically highest-risk forests. By the end of the 21st century, even under a low-emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), risks to forests in much of the Western US are projected to increase by 500 percent compared to the current risk in California.*
Emissions scenario
1.0xincrease
2.5xincrease
5.0xincrease
Year
2070
20202030204020502060207020802090
* We define a baseline as the 97th percentile of risk across U.S. forests from 1990 to 2019, which is roughly equivalent to the risk in California — a notably high-risk region — over that same time period.